We can only consider something to be entrepreneurship by its results. Actual value creation as an outcome, and not the intention to create value, is essential. Entrepreneurs do not get an A for effort or for trying !
Rare, extraordinary outcomes are not random, even if they may remain unusual. That is what extraordinary is, and an entrepreneur’s optimism may be (relatively) justified. He has at least some ability to turn a game of chance into, at least partially, a game of skill.
But entrepreneurs can place only one bet at a time, so for them, entrepreneurship is not about central tendencies or what is likely; it is about the outliers and what is possible. Although extreme optimism is not a robust determinant of success, it is probably a necessary prerequisite for achieving it.
Finally, to encourage entrepreneurship, society must make failure structurally easy—legally, administratively, and culturally. Labor flexibility and liberalizing bankruptcy make exit from failures easy. Governments that implement these few reforms discover that it does indeed help create a flow of new aspirants; high failure rates and high success rates (more of the latter) go hand in hand with high value creation.
Notes from the book, Worthless, Impossible and Stupid: How Contrarian Entrepreneurs Create and Capture Extraordinary Value by Daniel Isenberg